2023年2月14日星期二

【美股世界】【中級: 財報分析】【業績追踪】Microsoft (update: 2023Q2)

2023Q2 (2023 Jan)

財報分析

  • 損益表
    • 今季的G&A增幅恐佈,上升了63%
    • 由於OPEXg > REVg,所以OP下跌了8.5%
    • 雲業務是MSFT的增長動力,今季收入增長17%;硬件銷售則拖慢公司增長
  • 業務拆解
    1. Productivity & Business Process: LinkedIn及Dynamic是該segment的增長點
    2. Intelligent Cloud: 指的是sever product及雲服務,由Azure支持發展
    3. Personal Computing: Windows OEM及手機拖累增長,但廣告收入是增長亮點

結論

  • 今季的G&A增幅恐佈
  • Productivity & Business Process segment我們要留意LinkedIn及Dynamic增速
  • 廣告收入表現亮麗


Earnings Transcript重點

  • 客戶正在減少科技相關的支出,對SaaS公司一定有影響,特別是SMEs
  • 雲相關及A.I.
    • 雲收入增長為重點(但其中的Azure增速變慢),A.I.會是未來的業務重點
    • 2018年收購了GitHub,GitHub(全球最大的社交編程雲端平台,讓開發者可以儲存和管理他們的程式碼、版本控制和協作工具)可以說是A.I.的另一巨頭: 從GitHub + OpenAI (ChatGPT)的投資,看得出MSFT會在A.I.領域佔一重要位置
  • Teams及LinkedIn表現理想,Office 365 renewal沒有下跌
  • 雖然市場廣告支出下跌但MSFT的廣告收入仍有10%增長,跑贏同業
  • MSFT的cybersecurity收入也佔比到約10%
  • Guidance: 下半年Commercial Business增速變慢


Earnings Transcript節錄

  1. "Just as we saw customers accelerate their digital spend during the pandemic, we are now seeing them optimize that spend. Also, organizations are exercising caution given the macro uncertainty"
    • CEO clarifies on customer spend: "What we see is optimization & some cautious approach to new workloads and that will cycle through. But we do fundamentally believe on a long-term basis as a percentage of GDP tech spend is going up"
  2. CEO: "The next major wave of computing is being born, as the Microsoft Cloud turns the world’s most advanced AI models into a new computing platform  CFO: "Microsoft Cloud revenue was $27.1B, up 22% (up 29% in constant currency) YoY"
  3. Microsoft 365
    • We have more than 63 million consumer subscribers, up 12% year-over-year and we introduced Microsoft 365 Basic, bringing our premium offerings to more people.
    • No slowdown in MSFT 365: "In Microsoft 365, what you saw was very good renewal execution... Q1 based on explorations that we'd seen a year ago. So deals are both getting done and I think getting done on time. Getting done within a discount range that we feel good about."
  4. Azure 
    • Growth moderating:  "Azure & other cloud services revenue grew 31% & 38% (last Q grew 42%) in constant currency. As noted earlier, growth continued to moderate, particularly in Dec & we exited the quarter with Azure Constant Currency growth in the mid-30s" - CFO
      •  "..we saw results weaken through December. We saw moderated consumption growth in Azure & lower-than-expected growth in new business across the stand-alone Office 365, EMS & Windows commercial products that are sold outside the Microsoft 365 suite"
    • We are still in the early innings of cloud adoption: Enterprises have moved millions of calls to Azure and run twice as many calls on our cloud today than they did 2 years ago.
      • "The age of AI is upon us & Microsoft is powering it...Azure ML (machine learning) revenue alone has increased more than 100% for five quarters in a row"
        • Github has $1B in ARR: "Since our acquisition, Github is now at $1 billion in annual recurring revenue and get help us developer-first ethos has never been stronger more than 90M people now use the service to build software on any platform"
    • Cost savings when using cloud: Insurer AlA was able to save more than 20% by migrating to Azure and reduced IT provisioning time from multiple months to just an hour.
  5. Teams is still gaining traction, hits 280M MAUs: "Teams surpassed 280M monthly active users this quarter, showing durable momentum since the pandemic &... the number of third-party apps with more than 10,000 users increased nearly 40% YoY"
  6. LinkedIn is still growing: "We once again saw record engagement among our more than 900 million members. Three members are signing up every second. Over 80% of these members are from outside the United States"
  7. Search business CFO: "We have more than 1.4B monthly active Windows devices and are seeing increased engagement that is up 10% versus pre-pandemic...Most of the time spent on the PC, however, is browsing, searching, shopping & consuming the news"
  8. Advertising
    • Microsoft's ad business is already profitable and has been growing at double-digit CAGR rates: 2 largest digital advertising businesses are search and news advertising and Linkedln Marketing Solutions. Over the last 12 months, our total advertising revenue was nearly $18 billion, and the businesses continue to be profitable. 
    • Ad spend taking a hit: "Additionally, customers, focusing our advertising spend will impact Linkedin and search and news advertising revenue"
  9. Cybersecurity now constitutes ~10% of MSFT's total group revenue
    • Over the past 12 months, our security business surpassed $20 billion in revenue as we help customers protect their digital estate across clouds and endpoint platforms.
    • We are the only company with integrated end-to-end tools spanning identity, security, compliance, device management and privacy informed and trained on over 65 trillion signals each day.
  10. Gaming
    • "we expect revenue to decline in the high single digits. We expect Xbox content  &services revenue to decline in the low single digits as growth in Xbox Game Pass subs will be more than offset by lower monetization/hour in third party & first-party content"
    • We saw new highs for Game Pass subscriptions, game streaming hours and monthly active devices, and monthly active users surpassed a record 120 million during the quarter.
  11. CEO: "Bing continues to gain share in the US..." 
  12. Guidance:  "In our commercial business, revenue grew 20% on a CC basis in H1. However, we now expect to see a deceleration in H2 given how we exited December...In H1 23, over 70% of our revenue came from our commercial business & over 70% of that from Microsoft Cloud"