2022Q4 (2023 Feb)

財報分析

Investment in tech (Product Development) will increase, to maintain same level of EBITDA, community support costs, cost of payments, and infrastructure costs will be cut down, while same level of marketing expense is maintained
Maintain a stable balance between Guest vs Host is of prime importance
New program that targets property managers helps developing relationships with many of the biggest landlords in the United States
Average daily rate (ADR) will decline

The positive business trends observed by the company include a strong demand from guests, increased bookings for non-urban and cross-border trips, longer stays, and accelerated growth in the supply of listings.

CEO: Airbnb wants to perfect the core experience, focus on emerging use cases such as longer stays and experiences, and introduce new products and services.

"Better search algorithms, personalized recommendations, and enhanced cleaning and safety standards"

Most hosts come to the site organically through recommendations from prior guests

In terms of supply growth, 36% of Q4's hosts were prior guests and that the fastest-growing markets were in locations where hosts had been spreading the word among friends.

Airbnb's unique assets, such as a high volume of press and social media presence, and continual innovation on the product, will help with distribution.
CFO: Highlights the importance of balanced supply growth to maintain a happy marketplace for both hosts and guests, and notes that Airbnb has grown supply by 26% since 2019 while maintaining a balance with Nights and Experiences Booked.

CEO: the tools were aimed at providing transparent pricing and improving the customer experience, as affordability and great value are key reasons why people use Airbnb. The tools include transparent pricing with all-in pricing display, prioritizing better value listings in search results, and building new pricing tools for hosts.

CEO: A partnership with real estate developers and landlords, and they have started with over 10 companies, including Greystar and Equity Residential, and launched 175 buildings in Houston, Phoenix, and Jacksonville.

Landlords get visibility control over their building, free demand from people who want to lease their apartments, and a cut on the commission.
CEO added that the new program is strategic to Airbnb and will help the company develop relationships with many of the biggest landlords in the United States.

Airbnb plans to invest heavily in technology and innovation to enable hosts and guests to connect more easily and seamlessly.

Include artificial intelligence and machine learning algorithms, virtual and augmented reality tools, and blockchain-based solutions for identity verification and payment processing.
CEO: AI will be a great opportunity for Airbnb to leverage their long tail of data and to improve their search and matching capabilities (i.e. unique listings and the matching problem of finding the right home for a guest).

To make hosting more mainstream, Airbnb plans to launch a new campaign that emphasizes the benefits of hosting, including financial rewards, social connections, and cultural exchange.
The company also aims to enhance the quality of guest experiences by offering personalized recommendations, expanded travel guides, and new tools to communicate with hosts and manage bookings.
Seeing a permanent shift in travel booking behaviors towards incremental flexibility, and their long-term strategy is to point demand to where they have available supply in lesser-known locations.

One of Airbnb's competitors wrapping their vacation rental business into a loyalty program and the growing use of conversational AI.

CFO: ADRs are expected to decline modestly due to changes in mix and pricing, the company will continue to provide great value to guests and be rigorous in cost structure to support declining ADRs.
CEO: The impact on bookings in the long run will be positive, despite a modest impact on ADR in the short run.
CFO: ADRs would likely be down slightly on a year-over-year basis due to the anticipated continued growth of urban, cross-border, and regional mix.

Lead time for bookings: Europeans are booking summer travel earlier this year and that Airbnb is seeing a slightly longer lead time more generally, indicating confidence in travel this summer.
Guest growth: Millions of new guests have been introduced to Airbnb since COVID
Guest-to-host ratio

CEO: "in Q4 2022, 36% of new available hosts started as guests, which is an increase from prior years...guests are realizing they can become hosts as well."

Vast majority of new listings are by individuals, not property managers, and that there is a network effect where guests become hosts.

Headcount: Continuing to focus on hiring in key positions but not expanding its workforce too much.
Marketing expense

CFO: The company's marketing spending, stating that the company has already made significant reductions to its marketing spend since 2019, which have proven to be incredibly effective. Airbnb will maintain its marketing costs as a percentage of revenue for 2023, but is shifting some of the timing of marketing spend into Q1 to get its message out earlier to guests around the world for peak summer travel season.

CEO: "The company was investing in new products and services to expand beyond its core business, but he didn't expect any material changes to the P&L."
Flat EBITDA margin guide for 2023 contemplates mix shift. The company is confident it can achieve EBITDA margin neutrality even if ADR headwinds persist.
CFO: The company plans to offset the impact of ADR declines with fixed cost discipline and modest headcount growth. Airbnb plans to continue improving variable cost reductions in areas such as community support costs, cost of payments, and infrastructure costs, and invest in driving further profitability.
Cash

CFO: Ended the year with $9.6 billion in cash, and they plan to use this to invest in growth for the business in the future, keep enough cash for potential M&A opportunities and return stock and cash to shareholders through share repurchases. They plan to offset their $1 billion stock-based compensation through share repurchases and have $500 million left on the existing repurchase approval, which they anticipate executing early in the year.