上一篇文咪講要做二手準備，要諗定如果升，你要做D乜，如果跌，你又要做D咩ge。今次就以實例解釋下要點應用。
港股低位反彈2000點，其實之前一路跌，已經開始執緊倉。但講真，你估跌個陣大戶唔駛輸錢咩～只不過佢地唔會cash out positions，所以就算換倉個陣有realized P&L，都會維持近100%換倉，低位換低位，高位換高位，所以壓力無乜。但當然都係唔想日日跌啦，因為你發現，隻隻valuation都禁到咁低，換錯倉都幾麻煩。
換倉個陣，係咁易介紹下其中2個入門級的換倉策略
1. Dividend Strategy: 跌到咁，港股好多都變左高息股，10%股息率以上通街都係。作為機構投資人，就心心眼。所以低位換倉買入高息股，係長線投資其中一個換倉策略，減低日後每年meet annual target的壓力。買入高息股要考慮公司以下幾點metrics，例如過去5年股息是否連續增長、Dividend payout會否過高 (i.e. >85%)、公司Gearing會否高於同業、Free cashflow/Operating Cashflow會否太弱 (OCF Margin/FCF Margin)、Floating rate debt ratio、Interest expense to NP等等，去衡量今年會唔會減派。
Dividend strategy另一樣野要留意ge係機會成本 (O.C.)。等別係宜家d REITs、Utilities咁，如果得大約6% yield，其實唔抵玩。換去高Yield d ge names，就要考慮有無減派風險。作為Institutional Investors，其中一個比散戶著數ge地方，就係知道公司有無機會減派。不過如果考慮上面提到ge幾點先去投資，都可以避左好多雷。
2. Beta Strategy: 將Poor Beta公司換做Quality Beta。即係點先? 例如，將1772.HK (Gangfeng)換做700.HK (Tencent) (例子je，唔好咁認真去討論換去#700係唔係更好ge選擇)。換走#1772唔係話呢間公司質素差 (人地話晒係全球5大鋰企)，只係因為#1772係commodity-like，which its price is driven by supply & demand，一般commodity股我都唔太識睇所以會換走。希望換入一D我睇得明ge Beta，或更易做forecasting的靚Beta。
咁呢2個strategy點用呢? 一句講晒，睇個市升，用Dividend Strategy; 睇個市跌，用Beta Strategy; 無睇法，就繼續睇我個Blog。
當睇升: 彈一定係彈High Beta ge先，即係D高息股 (suppose low Beta)會lagging，咁呢個時間就正，個市見底，但仲可以俾到好多10% ge存錢股你買，小心蘇州過後無艇搭...
當睇跌: 先做Beta Strategy，因為poor quality Beta會跌得傷好多，所以換晒D渣渣輝走就岩數。
總之，執行Dividend strategy個陣，目標係(Low)Yield-to-(High)Yield; Beta strategy ge目標就係(Poor)Beta-to-(Quality)Beta。
後記
Dividend strategy has its own opportunity cost, that is when the market rebound, for those low dividend high Beta name will report bright unrealised profit gain. For investor with less experience, they may consider they are losing return from switching to high dividend name and miss out the market rally. Yet, for an institutional investor, we should pay attention to the recurring income gain from the switching.
